The Law of Averages
I would never claim to be a mathematician. I actually prefer to use a calculator and rarely turn to a piece of paper for simple addition. I guess you could say that I rely on technology to do my arithmetic. Therefore, it is really difficult for me to even begin talking statistics when engaged couples that are planning their destination wedding begin to ask me about “averages” or “statistics”. I am often asked, “how many people usually attend a destination wedding?” or “how many rooms do most couples hold?”, and “statistically, should I be worried about hurricanes in September?”. Before writing this blog, I looked up the definition of “statistics” on Wikipedia and then stumbled upon the true meaning and definition of “the law of averages”. Here is the ironic definition described by Wikipedia-
As invoked in everyday life, the “law” usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle.
Personally, I love this definition. What it says to me is; optimism is the way to approach planning your wedding based on the true meaning of law of averages. It is the perfect way to train your brain to think about how to move forward when you incorporate “Wishful thinking” into your planning.
1st-invite everyone and anticipate they all will attend. VIP’s average wedding is about 15 rooms per group, but we have had some that have upwards of 200 guests and many groups have roughly 20 guests and 10 rooms.
2nd- “Wishful thinking”—is that it is going to be a sunny day without a cloud in the sky! VIP often advises that the “rainiest” time to travel is usually in September and that is also the month when statistically the most hurricanes occur in the Caribbean. “
3rd-Wishful thinking”—would state that most guests would reserve their space and RSVP months prior to your wedding date; however, we often find that guests wait until the last minute to reserve their spot, so when setting the deadline, make sure you plan to let guests know to book their spot 100 days prior so you can be sure they are included and can take advantage of any group rates.
Here are some other interesting stats-
- Most couples think about holding a certain amount of rooms based on initial discussions with family members, though things sometimes occur and people who you may have thought would attend, back out, we often find that a couple who thinks they will have about “x” amount of rooms from the very beginning, usually finish with roughly the same amount of rooms as they first estimated.
- Most couples send close to 100 save the dates.
- Most couples have a “reception” or private event at the resort following the wedding.
- Most couples plan their destination wedding 8 months prior.
- Most couples base their resort of choice on 2 factors, the 1st—ease of getting married (and amount of time needed prior to the wedding at the location) and 2nd—price.
- Most couples have at least 1 “Debbie Downer” in their family who think a destination wedding is absurd. Because of this, forming bonds with other destination wedding couples and having someone who has been in your shoes, can really help encourage you through this whole process.
Finally, based on statistics and not the “law of averages”, VIP’s destination weddings couples all say that planning a destination wedding was the best decision they made! So keep optimistic, and rely on the “law of averages”!
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